Positioning (COT) · Full analysis
Deep-dive research view. Use this for context and monitoring, not as a standalone trigger.
NQ
Positioning (COT)
CFTC leveraged-money positioning (NQ)
Short positioning is elevated, adding downside pressure.
Exhaustion risk
CFTC TFF futures-only report (leveraged-money focus). Positioning updates weekly and can remain crowded before reversing.
Current positioning
- Net leveraged money
- -32k
- Weekly flow
- -18k
- Crowding percentile
- 88%
- State
- Exhaustion risk
Key insight
Exhaustion risk: Positioning is crowded, but weekly flow is slowing or starting to unwind.
Data diagnostics
Status: Weekly official
COT reflects Tuesday positioning and is released weekly, typically Friday.
CFTC · gpe5-46if · report 2026-09-08
Historical context
Last 26 reports
Net positioning
Shows whether leveraged funds are net long or net short over time.
-32k
Latest observation
2026-09-08T00:00:00.000
Net leveraged money: -32k
88th percentile
Leveraged funds are net short.
Current: -32k
Latest positioning sits 88th percentile in the recent range.
w/w net delta
Weekly change
Shows whether positioning is building or unwinding week to week.
Current: -18k
Latest observation
2026-09-08T00:00:00.000
Weekly change: -18k
building shorts
Average weekly move: 12k (above normal).
Current positioning vs 26-report range
Crowding percentile
Shows where current positioning sits versus the recent historical range.
88th percentile · Crowded long
Latest observation
88th percentile
Current net: -32k
Percentile compares current positioning versus the last 26 reports.
Current state · details remain visible on touch
Extreme short ← Neutral → Extreme long
Positioning state
Combines crowding and weekly flow to estimate continuation vs exhaustion risk.
State: Exhaustion risk
Positioning is crowded, but weekly flow is slowing or starting to unwind.
Implication: Reversal risk is rising if macro or price catalysts push against the crowd.
Breakdown
Leveraged money: -32k (-18k w/w)
Commercials: -67k (+12k w/w)
Structure: Alignment: leveraged money and commercials lean the same way.
Interpretation
What is happening: Net -31,872 contracts (-10.80% of OI), w/w -17,780.
What it implies: Short positioning is elevated, adding downside pressure.
What to watch: If this factor starts conflicting with primary drivers, treat it as lower-confidence context.
Context
Short term: Use the latest weekly/daily change as tactical pressure.
Medium term: Watch persistence of this factor across updates before treating it as structural.
Source: CFTC · updated 2026-09-08
How to read this
Expand COT explainability guide
- - Net positioning shows leveraged money exposure.
- - Negative values mean funds are net short.
- - Positive values mean funds are net long.
- - Crowding percentile compares current positioning to the last 26 reports.
- - Low percentile means short extreme.
- - High percentile means long extreme.
- - Positioning state combines crowding and weekly flow to estimate continuation vs exhaustion risk.