Methodology
How positioning, rates, and seasonality are combined into a structured market read.
The core idea
Regivana is designed to evaluate market context before execution. It does not generate trade signals. It combines several higher-timeframe drivers to show whether conditions are aligned, conflicting, or unclear.
Three core drivers
Positioning (COT)
Tracks speculative and commercial positioning. Helps identify crowding, buildup, and unwind risk.
Updated weekly
Rates / Yields
Measures macro pressure from Treasury yield trends. Especially important for equity indices and growth-heavy markets.
Updated daily when available
Seasonality
Uses historical monthly tendencies as background context. Acts as a secondary modifier, not a signal.
Static or periodically updated
How bias is formed
- - Bullish, bearish, or neutral stances are assigned to each driver.
- - Alignment across drivers increases confidence.
- - Conflict across drivers reduces clarity.
- - Output includes bias, confidence, drivers, conflict, and invalidation.
Data sources
COT
Source: CFTC Commitment of Traders
Frequency: Weekly
Use: Positioning context
Limitation: Released with delay and should not be treated as intraday data.
Rates / Yields
Source: FRED / Treasury yield data
Frequency: Daily when available
Use: Macro pressure and valuation context
Limitation: Yield data can lag and is used as a proxy.
Seasonality
Source: Internal historical tendency dataset / static rules
Frequency: Monthly or static
Use: Background tendency
Limitation: Historical tendency does not guarantee future behavior.
Data quality labels
- - Live: data source returned current update window values
- - Delayed: source is valid but operationally delayed (common with weekly reports)
- - Static: low-frequency background dataset
- - Mocked / fallback: temporary seeded values used when a source is unavailable
What this is not
- - Not a signal service
- - Not financial advice
- - Not a prediction engine
- - Not a replacement for execution rules
FAQ
Q: Is this a signal service?
A: No. Regivana provides context, not entries, alerts, or trade recommendations.
Q: Can I trade directly from the bias?
A: No. Bias is only one part of a trading process. Execution, risk management, and timing remain separate.
Q: How often does COT update?
A: COT is weekly and reflects positioning as of the reporting date.
Q: Why are rates important?
A: Rates influence liquidity, valuation, and risk appetite, especially for equity indices like NQ and ES.
Q: Why use seasonality?
A: Seasonality provides background context. It is never used as a standalone signal.
Q: What does mixed bias mean?
A: It means the drivers do not clearly align. In those conditions, the market may lack directional edge.
Q: Is this based on ICT?
A: The framework is inspired in part by ICT-style emphasis on higher-timeframe context, directional bias, and alignment before execution. It does not copy or claim to represent any specific ICT model.